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antonio66

Horse Racing

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Little disappointed with the racing today, but have had £20 on Charbel, 2.05 Kemp, Money Back As A Freebet If 2nd @ Skybet

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Good luck with Charbel. Ive always thought he is a lovely specimen of a horse. I had a biggish punt at a working man's price for his Arkle but he fell, if I remember, when going well. I confess I backed Waiting Patiently @ 5/2 midweek but they withdrew it due to lack of rain. Plagued with 'nons' at the mo.

I thought Astracad, the old timer, would give the odds on jolly a race at Wetherby 3 25. The Leicester race was swiftly run and the winner is useful and came out of a useful line of form that's working out. Astra was only the moral third  because 'Somewhere To be' would have won if not capsizing at the last. He's an 8/1 shot generally but is really only a 5/1 shot against these. My watchword is - look for value not winners.

Edited by Non-Smoking Man

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I remember someone on The Morning Show saying "value is the most expensive word in racing" :) I really don't like backing short priced favourites and always look for a bit of value. Only a couple of other bets yesterday on the all-weather, unfortunately no winners.

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For the record, Lord Napier ran to form and finished third in the Ladbroke.

Jonjo O'Neil rode the winner and he is well worth his 5lb claim. He has 10 more winners in him with 5 lbs off he said in the postrace interview. Watch out for him because he is the current hot property. Northern handicaps? Does he have a mount in the Betfair Hurdle, for instance? (A race im already working on and in which I have had considerable recent success (Kalashnikov, Agrapart).

This thread will effectively end when the Bookies start going 'no runner no bet' or 'with a run'. That's the end of the Antepost market proper for me.

It hasnt gone well really. OK Corral was brilliant until they (JP McManus, the owner) chose the NH Chase over the RSA. I felt sick and was kicking myself as I was thinking of investing in the NH Chase at the time. Also, Ive had some small speculative long price investments that have come to nothing. I thought Vision Des Flos could win a novice chase, but they switched it to hurdles and ditto Brain Power, who has gone back to hurdling rather than contest the 2 mile Champion Chase. Brewinupastorm has had his limitations exposed at Grade 1 level , Summerville Boy has been a major disappointment, and Sceau Royal hasnt progressed seemingly.

There is still hope for Saldier, Easy Game and Hardline. Let's see how they get on in the 'Dublin Festival', Feb 2/3.

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Im breaking a rule today by dipping into a lower grade handicap than normal. Its the 1 30 @ Ffos Las (itself a minor track). This is a 2.75 mile 0-100 handicap hurdle and I like Get Wishing for 4 reasons:

1. The horse has been crying out for an increase in distance, which it gets today;

2. Its wearing headgear - a sign they mean business, and often signalling a big effort;

3. Jonjo O'Neill Jr takes the mount claiming a valuable 5 lbs (= 5L);

4. Its form is working out.

Its trading at 5/1 currently.

Ive saved on Great Tempo @ 10/1, who has a placed effort in better company last season.

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Get Wishing failed to stay the trip.

Ive been waiting for an opportunity to bet Early Du Lemo  since its second to Another Crick in a comparitively fast time at Newbury (29/18). Air Du Rock is favourite owing to a useful, close second l.t.o, but EDL has the edge imo. I took 9/4 tonight in the hope and belief it wont unseat as it did when it next ran. Both these major players ran recently and EDL unseated early - but Air DuRock had a hard race and may not have recovered. Its unlike venetia Williams to make a mistake like this. We have the edge. The next one in the betting is Light Entertainment but that has been put up 8lbs for winning a mere 0-100 at Warwick, but my horse was placed in a 0-125.

EARLY DU LEMO 1 40 LINGFIELD.

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With < 1 hour to go Early Du Lemo is trading @ 5 on Betfair. I reckon it should be 2/1 each of two with Aire Du Rock, so ive increased my bet.

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Early Du Lemo gets it done. Im counting that as a 4/1 winner as far as accounting is concerned. He's won me £104.20

jack NSM

Edited by Non-Smoking Man

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Accounts for my selections up to date on this thread:

1 point win Dimple w 5/1  return 6 points

1    "   Prince Llywelyn w 7/2  return 4.5 points;

1 point Lithic lost;

1   point Lord Napier  lost

1 point Get Wishing  lost

.5 point Great Tempo lost

1 point Early Du Lemo w 4/1 return 5 points

Total stake 6.5 points  return 15.5 points, profit 9 points.

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3 25 Exeter 3m novice chase.

Yaltari is favourite, having won a 0-140 handicap chase and dropping in class to a (decent) novice chase.I awarded a speed figure of 38 at todays weights.  Thats a good figure. Another plus is that we know it stays today's trip of 3m.

That cannot be said of the joint second fav Equus Secretas, who scrambled its way to second in a 2.5m chase where 2 of the 4 in contention fell at the last (which ES had nearly done at the 13th.

Equus Secretas will go off in front which might not give King Of Realms the easy lead it enjoyed when winning an Ascot 3 miler on its seasonal debut. However KR will outjump it and possibly put it on the floor.

But is there any reason to believe it can beat Venetia's market leader?

There is a tenuous line of form through Bob Mahler who was runner up to Yalltari but was unsighted the time before behind King Of Realms. Plus King Of R. recorded a 17 point superior time figure when scoring at Ascot where it jumped superbly. On the debit side it didnt run at all well next time out and you have to forgive it that. One possible explanation is that it needs a break between races - which it has today.

I took 9/2 with Bet365. KING OF REALMS, then to continue my run of luck.

Edited by Non-Smoking Man

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King Of realms was second.

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