unclepuncle

Horse Racing and Betting Thread

487 posts in this topic

Following the feedback from the excellent Cheltenham Festival thread I am starting this more general horse racing and betting thread.

The next big race is the Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster on April 2nd. This is the curtain raiser to the flat turf season and already it looks a one horse race. That horse is Taqleed trained by John Gosden. He was 16/1 when betting opened about a month ago (I advised it at that price on the Betfair forums;-)) but is now a best price 8/1 - which I think is still well worth taking as he will be nearer 3/1 if he runs and gets a good draw.

The draw is something which only effects flat racing and can be absolutely crticial in big fields - it's effect can vary from day to day and is heavily influenced by the going - some courses may favour one side of the track if it's fast ground, bit if its soft the bias can switch to the other side. Sometimes nobody knows what side of the track is going to be favoured until the race is run - obviously it's too late by then:doh: All adds to the fun and frustration:P

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The Lincoln is a real toughie, Taqleed's jockey ?

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Just put a small wager on this, Just been looking at betfair at the back/lay betting. Its all new to me, but I presume if the odds fall I can lay later and cover my bet ? Is that what you was meaning in your post on the other thread uncle ?

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OMG - I didn't intend to turn you all into addicted gamblers:shock:

Barney - The Lincoln certainly used to be very tough (though my record in it is pretty amazing even if I say so myself) but recently the favourites have a very good record (6 of the last 12) as the top trainers have started targetting lightlty raced horses at it - Michael Stoute, John Gosden, Willy Haggas, Paul Cole etc have all had very short price winners of the race in recent years. Jockey - that will probably be Richard Hills as he is the owners retained Jockey, otherwise maybe William Buick. Either way if it runs and is favourite you can rest assured it won't be lacking for a decent jockey. The worry would be the draw - that can scupper the chance before the race is run.

Omegaman - yes if the price shortens then you would be able to lay off the bet for a no risk profit. Obviously the more it shortens the more profit you can lock in. The blue column shows you what price you can back the horse at. It's done decimally so if it says 8.0 thats 7/1. The pink column shos the price you can lay at.

One thing that people need to be aware of. Betting on horses before the day of the race is called 'ante-post' betting. If for any reason you horse fails to make the gig (i.e. injury, change of plans etc) then you lose your money. Thats the risk you take to get higher odds:shock:

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One other bet that I have placed recently which may appeal to a few more Wammers is Spurs in the Champions League.

They meet Real Madrid in the quarter finals and while the bookies make them nearly 3/1 outsiders to qualify from the tie I make this a real 'toss of a coin' job. Haven't seen Madrid in action and I think the Mourinho factor is affecting the bookies. Spurs are capable of scoring plenty of goals and if Bale has a good half hour they can put a tie to bed in 30 minutes. So I reckon 11/4 (3.85 on Betfair) is very good value:).

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I will be contributing to this thread. The lincoln is not my race - even though it IS a handicap. Gosden is a trainer to watch closely in big handicaps and he treats them as seriously as a Group3. Lots of prize money for his owners. Anyway his runners in handicaps often turn out to be Gp3!

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I will be contributing to this thread. The lincoln is not my race - even though it IS a handicap. Gosden is a trainer to watch closely in big handicaps and he treats them as seriously as a Group3. Lots of prize money for his owners. Anyway his runners in handicaps often turn out to be Gp3!

Ok Newsboy, but we expect a 40/1 winner each week :cool:

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Since recently joining betfair, I've been interested in the "Lay" betting they offer. Can't pick a winner so it must be easier to pick a loser !!!

Anyone else use this ? seemed easy at first but pick one that wins the race and your profits are soon gone. Any advice to a newbie on using the system to get the best returns ?

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Since recently joining betfair, I've been interested in the "Lay" betting they offer. Can't pick a winner so it must be easier to pick a loser !!!

Anyone else use this ? seemed easy at first but pick one that wins the race and your profits are soon gone. Any advice to a newbie on using the system to get the best returns ?

I lay the field at short odds in specific races, identifying (historically/statistically) the types of races in which they occur. For example, if you'd laid the field in Novice Hurdles at Doncaster over the last couple of seasons at 1.5, you would have doubled your money. I use combinations of 1.1/1.25/1.5.

From your viewpoint, try identifying horses that run well then tend not to find a lot under pressure; lay it at a short price in running, and you may get matched before the horse falls away.

Probably too risky to lay horses at big odds, you can lose your bank very quickly.

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Well the final field has now been declared for the Lincoln H'Cap (at Doncaster Racecourse) on Saturday and Taqleed as predicted is now a warm favourite - currently best price at 4/1, with the next horse at 10/1.

He is drawn is stall 11 which is bang in the middle and from recent history I'd be worried about that being a disadvantage - though we won't really know until after the race:doh: I'm also not a huge fan of his jockey, Richard Hills, so I have laid off my stake at 4.2/1 on Betfair so I now have a free bet at just over 10/1:)

He looks potentially the best horse in the race by a long way (could be much better class than his rivals) so I'm still hopeful he'll hack up:^

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We are taking clients to Kempton Park on Tuesday. I know horse racing like IHB knows IT. You guys have any tips?

Cheers BB

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We are taking clients to Kempton Park on Tuesday. I know horse racing like IHB knows IT. You guys have any tips?

Cheers BB

Depends how long you want them as clients :P

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Richard Hills is one of the best frontrunning jockeys I've ever seen - effectively this means he is a good judge of pace. Not fashionable, but good enough.

However, hw wont want to be at the front in the Lincoln!

By the by, I have received the official form book (Raceform) and I am subscribing till the end of the NH season.

Been perusing...

Now I have to findmy folder of standard times; Speed figures for Cheltenham a week or so away.

Somebody above asked about what to lay - you have to lay favourites..the more they are touted themore you lay!

Not a favourite way of betting for me but Im sure it can be made to pay. Unraced 2 y.olds starting favourite wouldnt be such a bad place to start.

Someone gonna start a thread on the Grand National?

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Taqleed has only lost twice - and both times it was when Richard Hills was riding him:doh:

Laying bad favourites is definitely the best policy - can't believe I didn't lay the arse off of Twice Over in the Dubai World Cup last week.

I was going to do a National preview with betting selection(s) next week once I'd finished counting my winnings on Taqleed:shock:

Also it's the US Masters golf next week and I'll definitely be having a flutter on that.

Did I mention I was an addicted gambler!!!

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